Former National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien: Ukraine’s NATO bid risks ‘World War III’

Reflecting on a variety of geopolitical threats in an interview with Fox News Digital, former national security adviser Robert O’Brien said the U.S. could offer security guarantees for Ukraine and more biting sanctions on Russia, but could not fulfill Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s request for an invitation into NATO without serious escalation.

‘To bring a country into NATO and the alliance that’s in a war with Russia is very provocative to the Russians, and could lead to escalation, even nuclear war,’ he said.

‘We can certainly give Ukraine security guarantees … put eastern European troops [in Ukraine] to help secure peace after a peace deal gets done. But NATO is too provocative at this point.’

O’Brien’s point of view serves as a glimpse into how a future Trump administration could approach dueling global crises in the Middle East, Russia and the Far East. O’Brien, who was former President Donald Trump’s top adviser on national security issues from 2019 to 2021, has been floated as a possible pick for secretary of state or another national security-focused role. 

‘Of course’ he would accept a job in the White House if Trump is successful in November and offers him one, he said. 

‘It’s always an honor to serve the country and to serve the president. But I’m not campaigning for a job,’ he said. ‘There are a lot of really great people who’d like to work for the president.’

The way out of the war, according to O’Brien, is through the negotiating table, and steeper sanctions are needed to cripple Russia’s economy and bring them to the table.  ‘The sanctions have been relatively minor,’ O’Brien said. ‘They haven’t sanctioned the Russian Federation Central Bank. They haven’t kicked folks out of SWIFT. They’ve taken a few oligarchs’ yachts.’ 

Last week, a growing band of nations looking to break away from the U.S. dollar and challenge western hegemony met at the BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia, as a way to evade western sanctions. 

‘I think we have got to use sanctions less. But when we do use them, we should use them comprehensively. I think slap on the wrist sanctions are the worst of all worlds. It encourages people to leave the dollar as a trading mechanism, but it doesn’t achieve any goal of truly punishing the target country,’ the former adviser said.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said recently that the U.S. is expected to announce fresh sanctions aimed at curbing the Russian war effort in the coming days. The restrictions will be aimed at secondary entities that are supplying Russia with critical supplies. 

‘Ukraine is going to be in real demographic trouble if it doesn’t stop the war,’ O’Brien mused. ‘We’re going to leave it to Ukrainians to decide what they’re willing to trade for peace.’ 

In the Middle East, O’Brien said, President Joe Biden has tried to ‘constrain Israel’s actions.’ 

‘Everything from negotiating with the Hamas terrorists, to not sending our Special Forces to rescue Americans who were taken hostage, to failing to punish Hamas for killing 30 Americans on Oct. 7, up to today, with Biden and Harris trying to dictate to Israel what targets they can hit in Iran — all projects weakness.’

From the left, Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris have lost support for not taking a strong enough stance against Israel’s offensive campaigns in Gaza and Lebanon — campaigns that have soured Israel’s standing among its neighbors.

It’s begged the question whether Israel would normalize relations with Saudi Arabia – a deal that had been on the precipice of completion when Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7.

O’Brien said he is not worried about Israel’s standing in the Middle East. ‘I’m actually surprised at how durable the Abraham Accords have been,’ referring to the deals between Israel, Bahrain, the UAE and Morocco that he helped broker under Trump. 

‘I think absolutely Saudi Arabia will join the accords. It may take Donald Trump winning the election for that to happen,’ O’Brien said. 

But that would likely depend on the makeup of Congress. Two-thirds of the Senate would have to approve the deal — a high bar for Saudi Arabia, which has been accused of human rights violations and involvement in the 9/11 attacks. To add to the contention, the deal would likely include the U.S. agreeing to allow the Saudis to work on nuclear projects for energy purposes.

Such a deal would amount to a pivotal realignment of the Middle East and further isolate Iran. But this week, Saudi Arabia and Iran conducted unprecedented joint military drills in the gulf of Oman. 

But O’Brien shrugged off the threat of the potential realignment of a U.S. ally, as Iran awaits Israel’s counter-attack for the 200 missiles it fired on Tel Aviv on Oct. 1.

‘Iran’s been exposed for being a lot of bark and less bite,’ he said. ‘They have no air force to speak of. They’ve got a couple old F 14 Tom Cats that can’t make it to Israel. They’ve got no real Navy to speak of. And their missile attacks have been blunted with very little damage or loss of life in Israel. There’s not a lot Iran can do right now. They’re wide open to Israeli attack.’ 

And while Harris asserted Iran is the U.S.’s biggest geopolitical threat, O’Brien insists it’s China.

‘If Iran is such a big threat to our freedom, why have we stood by and not enforced the sanctions?’ he asked.

‘China is the biggest threat to America. China has the demographics, the number of people, they’re hard-working, they’ve got a massive economy. China is an existential threat to America because they could beat us in a war and change our way of life. Iran can never defeat us in a war. They can’t change our way of life.’