The biggest mover so far in one month’s time is sugar futures, up over 16%.
As I am a big follower of weather patterns and have predicted weather could be a huge factor on several crops this year, one major concern for sugar is that the current El Niño weather pattern will curtail global sugar output.
In addition, India’s ban on sugar exports will continue to keep global supplies tight. This comes after India announced a 50% export tax on molasses from sugar refining. Monsoons in India (Jun-Sep) fell 6% below average, the poorest monsoon rainfall in 5 years.
Furthermore, the Thai Sugar Millers Corp, on November 1, projected that Thailand’s 2023/24 sugar production would fall by -36% y/y to a 17-year low due to a severe drought.
I love to watch sugar as a barometer for food prices (it’s in practically every processed food product) and as a bellwether for social unrest and inflation. Folks will fight over sugar when there are shortages, and it is not even Valentine’s Day yet. As more and more reports claim inflation is over, the sweet white stuff is worth watching.
CANE, the ETF for sugar, has rallied into some resistance at the 200-day moving average. However, it has handily cleared the January 6-month calendar range high, making the trend higher for longer seem obvious. CANE outperforms SPY and, while momentum has been just okay, with further price rises, we could see momentum kick in.
On the March 2024 futures chart, 23.00 is support while 24.00 is resistance. Most noteworthy is the notion of super cycles. Sugar is a great example of a 400% move higher since 2020, followed by a near 40% move lower. And currently, a 20% move up since it reached the nadir of 20.00.
Volatility — yes — is the inherent nature of a super cycle. Has the next wave begun?
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Mish in the Media
Mish talks all about retail and stock pick Abbvie (ABBV) on Business First AM.
Nicole Petallides and Mish dig deep into trends and stocks to watch for next big moves, as we are in full January trend mode on this video from Schwab Network.
On the Monday, January 22 episode of Your Daily Fivefrom StockCharts TV, Mish sees the potential for consumers to spend more money, from self-help to dieting, to makeup to skincare to fashion — pointing out several relevant stocks and how to trade them.
Mish looks at a selection of popular instruments in this video from CMC Markets, outlining their possible directions of travel.
Mish joins Jason Perz on the Against All Odds playlist, where she covers it all talking the mental game of trading, commodities, futures, equities, technical analysis, and macro.
Mish’s Market Minute on StockCharts TV returns, all new! Mish and Geoff Bysshe share how the powerful “Calendar Range” StockChartsACP plugin tells you who and what to believe, when to act, and what to trade. The new year is a big “reset” emotionally, and January sets the tone for the next six months AND the year. Every month is “like an inning in baseball,” financial reports focus on quarters, but analysts think in terms of the first half and second half of the year. How can you harness this knowledge to your benefit? Watch to find out!
Mish presents a three part market outlook in these videos from CMC Markets. In the first, Mish gives you a thorough outlook on which areas to invest in for 2024 in just four and half minutes. Then, she examines whether the S&P 500 can keep rallying, and finally, she investigates where 2024 could be the year of the heavy metals.
Mish offers her thoughts on a number of commodities ahead of the US CPI data announcement in this appearance on CMC Markets.
In this video from CMC Markets, Mish continues with her analysis on gold, oil and gas, this time adding the dollar/yen currency pair and her outlook on the dollar longer term.
Coming Up:
January 22: Your Daily Five, StockCharts TV & Schwab Network
January 24: Yahoo! Finance
January 25: Live Coaching
February 2: Money Show Life with Chuck Jaffe
Weekly: Business First AM, CMC Markets
ETF Summary
- S&P 500 (SPY): 480 now the pivotal zone.
- Russell 2000 (IWM): 195 pivotal, 190 support to hold.
- Dow (DIA): 375 support.
- Nasdaq (QQQ): 408-409 support.
- Regional banks (KRE): Back over 50 which needs to hold.
- Semiconductors (SMH): 184 support.
- Transportation (IYT): 262 now pivotal.
- Biotechnology (IBB): 135 pivotal.
- Retail (XRT): Held support at 65, but still needs to get back over 70.00.
Mish Schneider
MarketGauge.com
Director of Trading Research and Education